You know we might be in a bubble when you read through the SpaceX S-1 filing.
Scott Galloway has a history of calling out ridiculous IPOs and S-1s . . . remember WeWork? Galloway takes a look at the SpaceX S-1 and points out some amazing valuation claims. Galloway argues the proposed valuation is disconnected from current financials. At the low end of the reported target, SpaceX would trade around 94x sales, above even very high-multiple public tech names; his sum-of-the-parts math gets closer to $1 trillion, not $1.75–$2 trillion. He also criticizes the pitch’s huge $28 trillion TAM, including assumptions like near-universal Starlink adoption and enterprise AI markets far larger than today’s enterprise software market.
Galloway is basically explaining that the IPO asks public investors to pay today for a best-case, multi-decade outcome for SpaceX. Basically, investors will be funding Elon Musk’s grandest ambitions. And yes, Elon has done some amazing things with SpaceX and Tesla. And, Galloway has been famously wrong (as he admits repeatedly) about Tesla’s valuation. But the numbers are clear. Musk is making a massive bet, and the upside is already baked in here.
We’ll see if this has any impact on the IPO. Other analysts are making the same case when they drill down into the numbers.
