Category: Economy (Page 10 of 12)

White House takes credit for GM resurgence

General Motors had a very successful IPO last week, and the Obama administration is taking justified credit for bailing out GM instead of letting it die in a forced liquidation in bankruptcy.

It’s hard to argue here with success. The administration took a huge amount of grief for this decision, and it clearly hurt the President and the Democrats in the midterms, but this was the right decision. The auto industry is thriving, and we avoided a death spiral in the auto industry and the supplier base that would have occurred under a forced liquidation.

Luxury sales are rebounding

Here’s some interesting news regarding the retail sector and the luxury goods market. Luxury sales are rebounding, which probably means consumer sentiment is ticking back up.

The luxury sector is rebounding better-than-expected this year thanks in large part to wealthy Americans replenishing their wardrobes after a year of self-denial and nouveau riche Chinese indulging in a worldwide spending spree, according to a new study released Monday.

Sales of designer clothes, fine leather goods, jewelry, watches and other indulgences around the globe is forecast to surge 10 percent to euro168 billion ($236.7 billion) in 2010, recovering from a disastrous 2009 when sales declined 8 percent to euro153 billion, Bain & Co. said in its annual review of the sector commissioned by Italy’s Fondazione Altagamma association of high-end producers.

Let’s see what happens this holiday season. If double-dip recession concerns are fading away, retailers might be in for a pleasant surprise.

Greenspan supports raising taxes

The tax debate is raging on Capital Hill, and now we have this surprise from Alan Greenspan.

Former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan, reversing a long-standing aversion to higher taxes, said Wednesday tax rates must rise and the fiscal stimulus wound down in order to reduce the U.S. budget deficit and allow private investment to expand.

“I am in favor for the first time in my memory of raising taxes,” Greenspan told an audience at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. He said the economy could not recover while the high deficit remains high.

Greenspan warned that the deficit, swollen by massive stimulus spending, was crowding out capital investment. We “must find a way to simmer down fiscal activism and allow the economy to heal,” he said, adding that stimulus spending had been far less successful than anticipated.

Conservatives won’t be happy to hear this, but the reality of the long-term deficit needs serious solutions. Greenspan is stating the obvious.

Junk bond sales are booming

Here’s an interesting twist in the new reality:

With rising fears of a prolonged recession and stomach-churning moves in the stock market, corporate bond markets have performed so well this year they look like they’re part of a parallel universe.

Banks are reluctant to lend, but large corporations with the weakest credit ratings have had little trouble finding investors happy to hand over their cash.

Companies sold $24.6 billion in junk bonds in August, the eighth-best month ever for sales, according to Thomson Reuters data. Among those feeding in the market: Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co., Rite Aid Corp. and acquisitive power giant NRG Energy Inc.

So how is it that companies with bad credit find it so easy to borrow in this economy?

“A lot of that has to do with living in a world where investments pay less than 1 percent,” said Diane Vazza, head of fixed income research at rating agency Standard & Poor’s.

More and more companies are refinancing their corporate debt, getting rid of high-interest bonds in favor of a lower interest rate. In many ways this trend is a positive as companies lower their debt costs, having the exact effect that the Fed intended.

Mortgage rates keep falling

How low can home mortgage rates go? They keep falling.

The interest rate for a 30-year mortgage fell for the eighth time in nine weeks, according to a widely watched survey, with the record lows triggering the highest volume of home refinancing in 15 months.

Freddie Mac’s weekly report on lenders said solid borrowers with 20% down payments or home equity were being offered 30-year fixed-rate loans at an average of 4.42% this week, down from 4.44% a week earlier. The borrowers would have paid 0.6% of the loan amount in upfront lender fees.

The average 30-year interest rate recorded by the survey has not risen in nine weeks, although it remained flat at 4.57% for the weeks ending July 8 and July 15.

One reason is the terrible housing market. Homeowner confidence in the real estate market has dipped again.

Homeowners(i) are more pessimistic about the short-term future of home values in their local market than they have been in the past three quarters, according to the Zillow second quarter Homeowner Confidence Survey(ii). One-third (33 percent) believe home values in their local housing market have not yet reached a bottom, while 38 percent believe they have already reached a bottom.

Clearly, the foreclosure crisis has a long way to go.

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